Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil Unrest
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil Unrest
With the rapid rise in social media, alternative news sources, and blogs, ordinary citizens have become information producers as much as information consumers. Highly charged prose, images, and videos spread virally, and stoke the embers of social unrest by alerting fellow citizens to relevant happenings and spurring them into action. We are interested in using Big Data approaches to generate f...
متن کاملGauging Civil Unrest with Speed Data: The Societal Stability Protocol and the Intensity of Civil Unrest
Destabilizing events – whether they are political expression events, politically motivated attacks, disruptive state acts, or some other manifestation of discontent – can vary enormously in their intensity. It is important to capture differences in intensity because they can affect the impact of seemingly similar events or the reactions of others to those events. The SPEED project's Societal St...
متن کاملHealing the health system after civil unrest
O ver the last quarter century, the Somali population has endured protracted internal conflicts with devastating effects on the delivery of essential and lifesaving health care services. This extended humanitarian crisis situation has seriously weakened the public health sector, causing high maternal and child mortality; heavy burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, including ment...
متن کاملForecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades
Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key interest to social scientists and polic...
متن کاملBayesian Model Averaging and Forecasting
This paper focuses on the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. I briefly review the method of Bayesian model averaging, which has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. Some of the literature is discussed with particular emphasis on forecasting in economics. The role of the p...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Technometrics
سال: 2015
ISSN: 0040-1706,1537-2723
DOI: 10.1080/00401706.2014.1001522